The study relied on 7 years of post-enrollment follow-up from the Pathways to Desistance Study. Each person in the study was adjudicated delinquent for or convicted of one or more relatively serious offenses during adolescence. Their local jurisdiction juvenile court petition records and their adult FBI arrest records were systematically searched. The study estimates the in-sample 7-year recidivism rates to be in the 75-80 percent range. The analysis also estimates recidivism rates among different demographic groups within the sample. The Pathways data suggest that recidivism rates of serious adolescent offenders are high and comparable to the rates estimated for other samples of serious offenders in the extant literature. The current analysis also shows a pattern of heightened recidivism risk during the earliest months and years of the follow-up period, followed by a steep decline. Extrapolated long-term recidivism rates are estimated to be on the order of 79-89 percent. (publisher abstract modified)
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