Bayes factors are used to describe the strength of evidence that two crimes are linked. Using concepts from agglomerative hierarchical clustering, the Bayes factors for crime pairs are combined to provide similarity measures for comparing two crime series. This facilitates crime series clustering, crime series identification, and suspect prioritization. The ability of the proposed models to make correct linkages and predictions is demonstrated under a variety of real-world scenarios with a large number of solved and unsolved breaking-and-entering crimes; for example, a naive Bayes model for pairwise case linkage can identify 82 percent of actual linkages with a 5-percent false positive rate. For crime series identification, 74 percent-89 percent of the additional crimes in a crime series can be identified from a ranked list of 50 incidents. (publisher abstract modified)
Downloads
Similar Publications
- Badges for Basics Helps KCPD Develop Community Rapport
- Do Crime Hot Spots Move? Exploring the Effects of the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem and Modifiable Temporal Unit Problem on Crime Hot Spot Stability
- Raman Spectroscopic Examination of Bloodstains for Forensic Purposes : Background and Race Determination