In this paper, the authors investigate the existence of spatio-temporal correlations between successive robbery events, after controlling for environmental influences as estimated by Risk Terrain Modeling (RTM).
Understanding how social and environmental factors contribute to the spatio-temporal distribution of criminal activities is a fundamental question in modern criminology. Thanks to the development of statistical techniques such as Risk Terrain Modeling (RTM), it is possible to evaluate precisely the criminogenic contribution of environmental features to a given location. However, the role of social information in shaping the distribution of criminal acts is largely understudied by the criminological research literature. We begin by showing that a robbery event increases the likelihood of future robberies at and in the neighborhood of its location. This event-dependent influence decreases exponentially with time and as an inverse function of the distance to the original event. We then combine event-dependence and environmental influences in a simulation model to predict robbery patterns at the scale of a large city (Newark, NJ). The authors show that this model significantly improves upon the predictions of RTM alone and of a model taking into account event-dependence only when tested against real data that were not used to calibrate either model. We conclude that combining risk from exposure (past event) and vulnerability (environment), following from the Theory of Risky Places, when modeling crime distribution can improve crime suppression and prevention efforts by providing more accurate forecasting of the most likely locations of criminal events. (Published abstract provided)
- Childhood maltreatment and cognitive functioning in middle adulthood
- “I’m a security professional, a counselor, a leader, and sometimes a father figure”: Transformative social emotional learning through the eyes of school security professionals
- Social Support, Victimization, and Stress in a Women’s Prison: The Role of in-Prison Friendship for Reducing Perceptions of Stress