Gun Shows and Gun Violence: Fatally Flawed Study Yields Misleading Results

• NCJ Number: 309788
• Journal: American Journal of Public Health Dated: September 2011
• Author(s): Garen J. Wintemute; David Hemenway; Daniel Webster; Glenn Pierce; Anthony A. Braga
• Date Published: September 2011
• Length: 5 pages
• Grant Number(s): 2007-IJ-CX-0030
• Agencies: NIJ-Sponsored
• Publication Type: Research (Applied/Empirical)
• Award: New Approaches to Identifying Secondary Market Sources of Illegal Firearms

Annotation

The authors of this paper address a study on guns shows and gun violence that they consider flawed and misleading.

Abstract

This article responds negatively to a widely publicized but unpublished study of the relationship between gun shows and gun violence that being is cited in debates about the regulation of gun shows and gun commerce. The authors of this paper believe the study is fatally flawed. A working paper entitled “The Effect of Gun Shows on Gun-Related Deaths: Evidence from California and Texas” outlined this study, which found no association between gun shows and gun-related deaths. The authors of the present publication believe the study reflects a limited understanding of gun shows and gun markets and is not statistically powered to detect even an implausibly large effect of gun shows on gun violence. In addition, the research contains serious ascertainment and classification errors, produces results that are sensitive to minor specification changes in key variables and in some cases have no face validity, and is contradicted by one of its own authors’ prior research. The study should not be used as evidence in formulating gun policy. (Published Abstract Provided)