Examination of Change in Dynamic Risk of Offending Over Time Among Serious Juvenile Offenders

• NCJ Number: 251296
• Journal: Journal of Criminal Justice Volume: 45 Dated: June 2016 Pages: 48-53
• Author(s): E. P. Mulvey; C. A. Schubert; L. Pitzer; S Hawes; A. Piquero; S. Cardwell
• Date Published: June 2016
• Length: 6 pages
• Grant Number(s): 2008-IJ-CX-0023; 2007-MU-FX-0002
• Agencies: NIJ-Sponsored
• Publication Type: Research (Applied/Empirical); Report (Study/Research); Report (Grant Sponsored); Program/Project Description
• Award: Pathways to Desistance

Annotation

This study examined whether and how much risk/need indicators change over time in a sample of serious adolescent offenders and whether changes in risk were related to self-reported and official record reports of offending in the year following assessment.

Abstract

The study produced three primary findings. First, compared to the baseline assessment, overall risk/need scores decreased over time. Second, risk/need does not change in a uniform sequence across domains and time, since the form and rate of change differed by domain. Third, risk/need indicators were related to later offending, with more recent indicators being more powerful for predicting rearrest. Thus, findings provide empirical support for recent efforts to incorporate routine risk/need assessment into juvenile justice practices. Repeated assessments are likely to identify fluctuations in areas of risk/need that can be used to inform case management and intervention efforts, even for serious offenders. Growth curve and multilevel mixed-effects models were used to examine change through age 18 in a sample of 1,324 serious adolescent offenders participating in the Pathways to Desistance Study. (Publisher abstract modified)