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Effect of Longitudinal Arrest Patterns on the Development of Robbery Trends at the Neighborhood Level

NCJ Number
125989
Journal
Criminology Volume: 28 Issue: 3 Dated: (August 1990) Pages: 431-450
Author(s)
R J Bursik Jr; H G Grasmick; M B Chamlin
Date Published
1990
Length
20 pages
Annotation
Although the current resurgence of ecological deterrence research has addressed many of the methodological and theoretical problems of earlier studies, the question concerning the appropriate level of aggregation for such models has not been resolved.
Abstract
In this paper, we argue that there is strong evidence in the criminological literature that the neighborhood is the most meaningful level of aggregation for such studies. However, in an analysis of robbery incidents and arrests over 100 weeks in five Oklahoma City neighborhoods, we did not find any significant support for the deterrent effect of arrests on subsequent illegal behavior. We propose that the lack of such a relationship reflects periods of short-term equilibrium in the local community, during which the levels of crime and arrests are relatively stabilized. 1 figure, 3 tables, 6 notes, and 49 references. (Author abstract)

Date Published: January 1, 1990