Data from 1,789 adult sex offenders released from prison in four States were collected (Minnesota, New Jersey, Florida, and South Carolina). On average, the sexual recidivism rate was approximately 5 percent at 5 years and 10 percent at 10 years. AWA Tier 2 offenders had higher Static-99R scores and higher recidivism rates than Tier 3 offenders; and in Florida, these inverse correlations were statistically significant. Actuarial measures and existing State tier systems, in contrast, did a better job of identifying high-risk offenders and recidivists. The study also examined the distribution of risk assessment scores within and across tier categories, finding that a majority of sex offenders fall into AWA Tier 3, but more than half scored low or moderately low on the Static-99R. The results indicate that the AWA sex offender classification scheme is a poor indicator of relative risk and is likely to result in a system that is less effective in protecting the public than those currently implemented in the states studied. (Publisher abstract modified)
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