A Multi-state Recidivism Study Using Static-99 Risk Scores and Tier Guidelines from the Adam Walsh Act

The principal aim of this study is to examine how well the Adam Walsh Act (AWA) classification categories predict sexual offender recidivism compared with the Static-99 and Static-2002, actuarial risk assessment instruments. Additional study goals include using Static-99 and Static-2002 scores to further examine the risk distribution of Tier III (high risk) offenders as defined by the AWA, determining whether other extant classification schemes accurately predictive recidivism, and determining whether type of notification (e.g. aggressive, passive, Internet) is related to recidivism.
Finally, extensive examination of the degree to which sex offense recidivism varies with offender age will be investigated. Data to inform these analyses will be collected from five states: Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, Florida and South Carolina. From each state, the researchers will obtain information on 400 or more convicted adult male sexual offenders. The data requests to the individual State departments will include (a) offender demographics (e.g., DOB, race, ethnicity); (b) criminal history (e.g., type and dates of all known arrests and convictions); (c) Static-99 and Static-2002 scores (to include summary scores and individual item ratings) and dates of scoring; (d) sex offender registry information (e.g., whether or not registered and if so, on what date and subsequent to which offense). Sophisticated data analytic techniques (e.g., survival analysis, regression analysis) will be used to address each study aim.
ca/ncf