Accuracy of Recidivism Prediction Scales: A Technical Description of Data and Research Methods

• NCJ Number: 157410
• Author(s): J Cohen; S E Zimmerman
• Date Published: 1995
• Length: 75 pages
• Grant Number(s): 86-IJ-CX-0039
• Agencies: NIJ-Sponsored
• Publication Type: Research (Applied/Empirical)

Annotation

This study was conducted to examine the transportability of four recidivism prediction scales (RAND, INSLAW, SFS81, and CGR) across populations and applications, based on the assumption that it is important to know whether scales developed to predict offender behavior in one population can be employed in another population without substantial degradation in performance and whether scales developed for use at one criminal justice processing stage can be used in another stage.

Abstract

The four recidivism prediction scales were originally designed to predict different outcomes. Offender attributes in each scale included adult criminal record, juvenile record, drug/alcohol use, age at target arrest, educational attainment, and employment history. All data sets associated with the scales contained longitudinal information on individual offending, as indicated by criminal justice interventions. Although the four recidivism prediction scales represented useful approaches to making comparisons across data sets, no scale performed very well or very consistently. Researchers found that, without considerable improvement in measurement ability, theoretical considerations about what factors affect recidivism are less important than statistical characteristics of the sample and the scale. Appendixes contain scale scoring rules and supporting analytical data. 17 references, 14 footnotes, 9 tables, and 6 figures