Criminal Justice Researcher-Practitioner Fellowship Placement Program: Determining the Timing of Parole Discharge Based on the Concept of "Redemption"

This grant is funded under NIJ's Building and Enhancing Criminal Justice Researcher-Practitioner Partnerships solicitation, which supports researcher mentoring and fellowship placement in criminal justice organizations. Under the mentorship of Albert Blumstein, Ph.D., the Principal Investigator will replicate a hazard model approach to estimating "redemption" points, i.e., when the likelihood of parolee recidivism is not statistically different than that of arrest in their general subpopulation, in collaboration with the Pennsylvania (PA) Department of Corrections (DOC). The objective is to develop early discharge policies that would eliminate returns to incarceration for technical violations late in maximum sentence terms if public safety risk is low. About 40,000 parolees released between 1999 and 2004 will be followed for six or more years using PA State Police arrest data and PA DOC data. Survival analysis will be used to estimate recidivism risk as a function of time arrest-free post-prison release, controlling for offender demographics and criminal, supervision and incarceration history. In addition to the data and written deliverables required by NIJ, anticipated work products include articles in practitioner and research publications, local stakeholder briefings, and professional conference presentations. ca/ncf