A Focused Deterrence Program for Juveniles with Firearm Offenses: a Randomized Controlled Trial and Process Evaluation

A leading cause of death among juveniles since 2020, youth firearm violence is a significant public health concern with widespread community, economic, and social repercussions. Focused deterrence has emerged as a promising intervention that seeks to reduce crime by focusing resources on groups and individuals that are disproportionately involved. Through the strategic deployment of law enforcement and social services, this strategy has successfully reduced serious forms of violence—including firearm violence—in numerous jurisdictions. Nevertheless, three key gaps persist in the literature: a lack of knowledge on implementation fidelity and sustainability, a lack of randomized designs in evaluations, and little insight into the specific mechanisms behind any effects.

This research collaboration features an evaluation by Florida State University (FSU) of the Florida Department of Juvenile Justice’s (FLDJJ) focused deterrence program for youth firearm offenders. FLDJJ is implementing a strategy that utilizes focused deterrence activities among youth with community-based supervisions who are at a high risk of engaging in firearm violence. FLDJJ is initially piloting this project in six large counties and will be randomly assigning juvenile probation officers to administer the focused deterrence activities or engage in case management and supervision as usual. This proposal seeks to advance the literature by supporting a FLDJJ focused deterrence project manager dedicated to program implementation and supporting an external evaluation by FSU.

FSU’s evaluation of the intervention will consist of three components. First, a process evaluation will identify challenges in implementing and sustaining focused deterrence's key activities through semi-structured interviews with program stakeholders and tracking of fidelity measures. Second, FSU will assess the impact of participation in the focused deterrence program on rates of recidivism for firearm offending and other outcomes. The evaluation will capitalize on FLDJJ’s random selection of juvenile probation officers to deliver the focused deterrence activities; this equates to a block randomized design, thus offering a rare opportunity to conduct a true experiment on this topic. Finally, the mechanisms underpinning focused deterrence will be directly considered through analyses of the impact of the program on youth perceptions of risk, procedural justice, informal social control, and opportunities and motivation to offend.
Project deliverables will include interim and final reports, datasets, and associated materials, empirical papers on the effect of focused deterrence on youth criminal justice and behavioral outcomes, dissemination of the program through published implementation manuals, presentations at policy-and research-oriented conferences, and publication of project materials through FSU and FLDJJ. CA/NCF