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Real-Time Crime Forecasting Challenge Winners

Go to the challenge home page to learn more.

Real-Time Crime Forecasting Challenge Winners
Type of CrimeTime Period
1 Week2 Weeks1 Month2 Months3 Months
PAI[1]PEI*[2]PAIPEI*PAIPEI*PAIPEI*PAIPEI*
Student
Small Team/Business
Large Business
All Calls for ServiceWarrenYurickWarrenYurickWarrenYurickWarrenYurickYurickYurick
BurglaryAll[3]AllAllAllYurickLedrayWarrenWarrenLedrayLedray
Street CrimesWarrenYurickWarrenYurickYurickWarrenWarrenWarrenWarrenYurick
Theft of AutoWarrenWarrenWarrenScarboroughWarrenYurickYurickWarrenYurickYurick
All Calls for ServiceTamer
Zone		William HerlandsTamer
Zone		IntuidexTamer
Zone		IntuidexTamer
Zone		IntuidexTamer
Zone		Intuidex
BurglaryIntuidexMultiple winners[4]Bates AnalyticsDylan FitzpatrickANDY_NIJBates AnalyticsANDY_NIJBates AnalyticsKUBQR1Bates Analytics
Street CrimesMURRAY MIRONWilliam HerlandsTamer
Zone		Bates AnalyticsTamer
Zone		IntuidexTamer
Zone		Steven YurickTamer
Zone		Center for Science and Law[5] / Steven Yurick
Theft of AutopennaikenCCCpennaikenTADICpennaikenTADICTamer
Zone		TADICKUBQR1PTL
All Calls for ServiceCodilimeTeam Kernel GlitchesPASDACodilimeCodilimeTeam Kernel GlitchesPASDACodilimeCodilimeTeam Kernel Glitches
BurglaryTeam Kernel GlitchesTeam Kernel GlitchesTeam Kernel GlitchesTeam Kernel GlitchesPASDAIMPAQPASDAIMPAQJeremy HeffnerCodilime
Street CrimesJeremy HeffnerGARANT AnalyticsPASDATeam Kernel GlitchesPASDAConduent Public Safety SolutionsPASDACodilimePASDACodilime
Theft of AutoGRIERTeam Kernel GlitchesGRIERMaruan Al-SedivatGRIERGRIERPASDADataiku IncGRIERDataiku Inc

Notes

[1](A) Prediction Accuracy Index (PAI)

  • The PAI will measure the effectiveness of the forecasts with the following equation: 
PAI equals the quotien of n divided by N divided by the quotient of a divided by A
  • Where n equals the number of crimes that occur in the forecasted area, N equals the total number of crimes, a equals the forecasted area, and A equals the area of the entire study area.

[2](B) Prediction Efficiency Index* (PEI*)

  • The PEI* will measure the efficiency of the forecast with the following equation: 
PEI* equals PAI divided by PAI*
  • Where PEI* equals the maximum obtainable PAI value for the amount of area forecasted, a. As such: 
PEI* equals n divided by n*
  • Where n* equals the maximum obtainable n for the amount of area forecasted, a.

[3] There was a four-way tie in both PAI and PEI* scores for the one- and two-week burglary forecast — Warren, Yurick, Scarborough, and Ledray

[4] Multiple entrants tied in this category and timeframe: AltMaps CUDY, Dylan Fitzpatrick, GRANTHAM, INTUIDEX, KOONTZ, MURRAY MIRON, PTL, RAPTOR

[5] On December 13, 2017, the leaderboard was updated to include the Center for Science and Law in the Small Team/Business category winner for their top PEI* score for forecasting street crimes in the 3-month time period.

Date Created: June 28, 2017