0:00 all these numbers are in a mixture
0:02 calculation a paternity a random match
0:05 probability a conditional probability
0:06 all they are is estimates they're just
0:10 like the odds on the fleet Alex or on
0:13 closing argument they're an estimate the
0:17 reality is is never attainable in a
0:19 horse race it is because you run the
0:20 race but in this case you'll never know
0:24 what the denominator of your estimate is
0:26 because you're not genotyping everybody
0:28 on the planet nor can you because
0:30 everybody on the planet is an entity
0:33 that's changing as we sit here people
0:36 are dying and people are being born its
0:40 continuum right in a population level
0:43 every breath you take someone is
0:46 stopping their breathing or starting it
0:48 if you think about that it's quite
0:50 amazing really it's a continuum of human
0:54 beings coming living going coming living
0:58 going never stops so we're not at any
1:01 point in time a static entity as a
1:04 population right so you never know what
1:08 the denominator is you'd never be able
1:10 to genotype everybody to get the
1:12 denominator because the everybody
1:14 changes by the minute so okay you're
1:20 just providing an estimate to what is a
1:22 reasonable idea of how common your gonna
1:28 see these genotypes come together as a
1:30 unit or a profile okay you're not
1:34 carving in stone how many people you'd
1:36 have to test to be sure you'd see it
1:39 there's a way to calculate that and I'll
1:41 get into it but statistics are giving
1:44 you a tool to provide that
