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Risk assessment tool floundering? Let's ask the client to self-predict

NCJ Number
International Journal of Law and Psychiatry Volume: 68 Dated: 2020
Date Published

The study examined the predictive validity and individual scale construct validity of the Transition Inventory.


Self-prediction by criminal justice involved clients has not been typically implemented in risk assessment procedures, yet clients have unique self-knowledge that may add to the assessment of risk. The Transition Inventory is an eight scale self-prediction measure that addresses areas that are a precursor to antisocial and criminal activity (e.g., “Drugs or alcohol will be a problem for me”). The Transition Inventory was administered to 131 paroled clients (primary drug-related offenses), 104 of whom were of minority/ethnic status. Predictive validity was demonstrated by the Transition Inventory incrementally predicting supervision failure. Individual scale construct validity was demonstrated by predicting later assessed corresponding measures, with the Leisure scale having the most robust predictive relationship. Self-prediction may promote greater predictability and stronger client engagement in the assessment process.

Date Published: January 1, 2020