Description of original award (Fiscal Year 2007, $261,405)
The researchers will investigate the dynamic predictors of post-release performance. Successful prediction of post-release performance has two primary benefits. First, knowledge of factors that can predict poor post-release performance permits a targeted intervention. Second, the targeting of intervention can be done in a timely fashion; a strategy that cannot occur with static historical predictors. Accurate inclusion of dynamic risk factors within an actuarial scheme introduces the next step in the evolution of risk assessment: dynamic actuarial prediction. Investigators will recruit 400 incarcerated offenders, scheduled for release to Lubbock County, Texas, to participate in this study. The proposed study has three goals: (1) to replicate a predominantly mental health study that successfully measured dynamic change as it relates to release incidents; (2) to expand the dynamic content to areas of psycho/social functioning; and (3) to improve the methodology of previous studies, thereby allowing for stronger conclusions.
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