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Predicting Rearrest for Violence Among Serious Youthful Offenders

NCJ Number
Date Published
January 1995
30 pages
This article presents the results of an analysis of the risk of arrest for a violent crime for a cohort of youthful parolees.
The sample consisted of 1,949 juveniles paroled by the California Youth Authority between July 1, 1981, and June 30, 1982. Results of a multivariate competing hazards analysis show that prior criminal history and socioeconomic variables were powerful predictors of both the timing and the charge of first arrest following parole. Compared to results from a model that predicts rearrest for any crime, rearrest for violence was significantly influenced by prior arrests for violence and several family pathology variables, including evidence of family violence and parental criminality. Prior gang involvement and heavy use of alcohol and illicit drugs had little predictive ability for violent recidivism among the sample. The results indicate that prediction of rearrest for violence among a group of serious youthful offenders may be practical if criminal history, institutional behavior, and personal background characteristics are all taken into account. 3 tables, 6 figures, 12 notes, and 44 references

Date Published: January 1, 1995