Metropolitan Local Crime Clusters: Structural Concentration Effects and the Systemic Model

• NCJ Number: 249377
• Journal: Journal of Criminal Justice Volume: 43 Issue: 3 Dated: June 2015 Pages: 186-194
• Author(s): Lallen T. Johnson; Ralph B. Taylor; Elizabeth R. Groff
• Date Published: June 2015
• Length: 9 pages
• Grant Number(s): 2009-IJ-CX-0026
• Agencies: NIJ-Sponsored
• Publication Type: Research (Applied/Empirical)
• Award: Forecasting Municipality Crime Counts within a Metropolitan Area

Annotation

Using community structure and the racial-spatial divide as a framework, this study examined whether geographic sub-regions of violent crime existed in a large metropolitan area, and whether the systemic model of crime can predict them; in addition, surrounding social structure measures were included to determine whether they demonstrate the same violent crime links seen in recent work on concentration impacts.

Abstract

Models confirmed links of focal jurisdiction socioeconomic status and residential stability with sub-region classification. Models with spatially lagged predictors show powerful impacts of spatially lagged racial composition. Findings extend work on racial concentration effects and the basic systemic model to metropolitan sub-regions. Implications for shifting spatial inequalities in metropolitan structure and questions about responsible dynamics merit attention. A LISA analysis was used to identify violent crime clusters for 355 jurisdictions in the Philadelphia (PA)-Camden (NJ) primary metropolitan area over a 9-year period. Multinomial logit hierarchical/mixed effects models were used to predict cluster classification using focal and lagged structural covariates. (Publisher abstract modified)