U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government, Department of Justice.

Metropolitan Local Crime Clusters: Structural Concentration Effects and the Systemic Model

NCJ Number
Date Published
June 2015
9 pages
Lallen T. Johnson, Ralph B. Taylor, Elizabeth R. Groff
Using community structure and the racial-spatial divide as a framework, this study examined whether geographic sub-regions of violent crime existed in a large metropolitan area, and whether the systemic model of crime can predict them; in addition, surrounding social structure measures were included to determine whether they demonstrate the same violent crime links seen in recent work on concentration impacts.
Models confirmed links of focal jurisdiction socioeconomic status and residential stability with sub-region classification. Models with spatially lagged predictors show powerful impacts of spatially lagged racial composition. Findings extend work on racial concentration effects and the basic systemic model to metropolitan sub-regions. Implications for shifting spatial inequalities in metropolitan structure and questions about responsible dynamics merit attention. A LISA analysis was used to identify violent crime clusters for 355 jurisdictions in the Philadelphia (PA)-Camden (NJ) primary metropolitan area over a 9-year period. Multinomial logit hierarchical/mixed effects models were used to predict cluster classification using focal and lagged structural covariates. (Publisher abstract modified)
Date Created: July 12, 2016