Estimating Human Trafficking into the United States: Development of a Methodology

• NCJ Number: 215475
• Author(s): Heather J. Clawson; Mary Layne; Kevonne Small
• Date Published: December 2006
• Length: 68 pages
• Grant Number(s): 2004TO178
• Agencies: NIJ-Sponsored
• Publication Type: Research (Applied/Empirical)

Annotation

This research project developed and fully documented a method to estimate the number of females and males trafficked for the purposes of sexual and labor exploitation from eight countries (Colombia, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Mexico, Nicaragua, Peru, and Venezuela) into the United States at the Southwest border.

Abstract

The United States is widely regarded as a destination country for trafficking in persons for labor and sexual exploitation, yet the exact number of human trafficking victims to the United States has remained largely undetermined since passage of the Trafficking Victims Protection Act (TVPA) in 2000. This research project developed and fully documented a method to estimate the number of females and males trafficked for the purposes of sexual and labor exploitation from eight countries (Colombia, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Mexico, Nicaragua, Peru, and Venezuela) into the United States at the Southwest border. Preliminary estimates are reported for males and females at-risk for being trafficked for both labor and sexual exploitation in each of the eight countries by incorporating Monte Carlo simulation methods into the estimation model. The model was tested and the report presents preliminary estimates for the transit journey of trafficking victims from the eight countries to the southwest border of the United States. The model utilizes only open source data and was designed to be highly flexible and modular so that the models can evolve as the body of data expands. The method is very versatile in that it can be applied to any other combinations of countries as source or destination. The research highlights the crippling need for better data. 29 references, appendixes A-C, 26 exhibits