This paper develops models of delinquent activity and subsequent sentencing to a correctional program. It shows how a population of youths, whose delinquent activity is represented by a stationary stochastic process, can be selected (using reasonable selection rules) to form a cohort which has an inflated rate of delinquent activity prior to selection. When the activity rate returns to its uninflated rate after the youths are released from the program, an apparent reduction results. Based on this analysis, the paper concludes that the reductions noted in delinquent activity may be largely due to the way delinquents are selected for correction rather than to the effect of the programs. Figures, equations, seven references, and appended technical material are supplied. (Author abstract modified)
Downloads
Similar Publications
- Changing Fortunes or Changing Attitudes? Sentencing and Corrections Reforms in 2003
- The cascade of victimization: Multiple victimizations, PTSD symptoms, and educational consequences among college students at Hispanic-serving institutions
- Searching for Legal Domination: An Applied Multimedia-based Empirical Analysis of Juror Decision-making