U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government, Department of Justice.

Recidivism Forecasting Challenge: Unofficial Results

NIJ's Recidivism Forecasting Challenge aimed to improve the ability to forecast recidivism using person- and place-based variables with the goal of improving outcomes for those serving a community supervision sentence. We are please to the post unofficial results below in Student, Small Team, Large Team, and Accounting for Racial Bias categories. Download results spreadsheet (.xlsx).

Teams have until July 23, 2021, to submit a request to have one or more of their scores re-examined. We will release the list official winners after any request to re-examine scores is complete. If not such requests are received, we will release official winners on July 26, 2021.

Total Submissions by Year/Category
Category Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
Student 1 0 1
Small Team 41 38 39
Large Team 15 17 20
Totals 57 55 60

 

Student Category

We received only one student entry for year one, none for year two, and one for year three from a different student than year one.

Year 1, Student: Shah
Population Score
Male Parolees 0.389
Female Parolees 0.236
Average Accuracy 0.312
Year 3, Student: Hanson
Population Score
Male Parolees 0.308
Female Parolees 0.267
Average Accuracy 0.288

 

Small Team Category

Year 1

Year 1m Male Parolees
Place Team Name Brier Score
1st IdleSpeculation 0.1916
2nd SRLLC 0.1919
3rd Sevigny 0.192
4th Team Smith 0.1922
Year 1, Female Parolees
Place Team Name Brief Score
1st TeamKlus 0.1542
2nd TeamSherrill 0.15539
3rd IdleSpeculation 0.15544
4th Sevigny 0.1555
Year 1, Average Accuracy
Place Team Name Brier Score
1st TeamKlus 0.1733
2nd IdleSpeculation 0.1735
3rd Sevigny 0.1738
4th JianyeGe 0.174

Year 2

Year 2, Male Parolees
Place Team Name Brier Score
1st MCHawks 0.1658
2nd Oracle 0.167
3rd CategOracles 0.1679
4th VT-ISE 0.1685
Year 2, Female Parolees
Place Team Name Brief Score
1st Oracle 0.1233
2nd MCHawks 0.1242
3rd VT-ISE 0.126
4th DEAP 0.1263
Year 2, Average Accuracy
Place Team Name Brier Score
1st MCHawks 0.145
2nd Oracle 0.1451
3rd VT-ISE 0.1472
4th DEAP 0.1481

Year 3

Year 3, Male Parolees
Place Team Name Brier Score
1st DEAP 0.15237
2nd EconCGU 0.152425
3rd CategOracles 0.1526
4th Duddon Research 0.1524
Year 3, Female Parolees
Place Team Name Brief Score
1st TEAMSherrill 0.11614
2nd Aurors 0.1179
3rd MNLB 0.11815
4th Oracle 0.1182
Year 3, Average Accuracy
Place Team Name Brier Score
1st EconCGU 0.13577
2nd DEAP 0.1358
3rd CategOracles 0.1359
4th MNLB 0.1363

 

Large Team Category

Year 1

Year 1, Male Parolees
Place Team Name Brier Score
1st CrimeFree 0.19
2nd MattMarifelSora 0.1907
3rd CrescentStar 0.191
4th KMG_BQR 0.1913
5th PASDA 0.1914
Year 1, Female Parolees
Place Team Name Brief Score
1st CrimeFree 0.1538
2nd MattMarifelSora 0.1543
3rd CrescentStar 0.1548
4th DataRobot 0.155
5th KMG_BQR 0.1552
Year 1, Average Accuracy
Place Team Name Brier Score
1st CrimeFree 0.1719
2nd MattMarifelSora 0.1725
3rd CrescentStar 0.1729
4th KMG_BQR 0.1733
5th PASDA 0.1734

Year 2

Year 2, Male Parolees
Place Team Name Brier Score
1st TrueFit 0.1542
2nd IdleSpeculation 0.1552
3rd EarlyStopping 0.1619
4th KMG_BQR 0.1631
5h PASDA 0.1638
Year 2, Female Parolees
Place Team Name Brief Score
1st TrueFit 0.1196
2nd IdleSpeculation 0.1209
3rd EarlyStopping 0.1222
4th KMG_BQR 0.1224
5th Crescent Star 0.1245
Year 2, Average Accuracy
Place Team Name Brier Score
1st TrueFit 0.1369
2nd IdleSpeculation 0.1381
3rd EarlyStopping 0.142
4th KMG_BQR 0.1428
5th PASDA 0.1442

Year 3

Year 3, Male Parolees
Place Team Name Brier Score
1st IdleSpeculation 0.1463
2nd TrueFit 0.1472
3rd SAS Institute 0.149
4th EarlyStopping 0.1498
5h KMG BQR 0.1507
Year 3, Female Parolees
Place Team Name Brier Score
1st TrueFit 0.1139
2nd IdleSpeculation 0.1147
3rd PASDA 0.1165
4th SAS Institute 0.1173
5th EarlyStopping 0.11734
Year 3, Average Accuracy
Place Team Name Brier Score
1st IdleSpeculation 0.13048
2nd TrueFit 0.13052
3rd SAS Institute 0.1332
4th EarlyStopping 0.1336
5th PASDA 0.1343

 

Accounting for Racial Bias Category

Year 1

Year 1, Male Parolees
Place Team Name Brier Score
1st MattMarifelSora 0.809
2nd SEVIGNY 0.808
3rd MCHawks 0.8069
4th SRLLC 0.8066
5th Team_Smith 0.8064
Year 1, Female Parolees
Place Team Name Brier Score
1st PASDA 0.8446
2nd MCHawks 0.8442
3rd EconCGU 0.8432
4th IdleSpeculation 0.8428
5th MengHuang 0.841

Year 2

Year 2, Male Parolees
Place Team Name Brier Score
1st TrueFit 0.8397
2nd KMG_BQR 0.8356
3rd EarlyStopping 0.8354
4th SAS Institute 0.8343
5th MCHawks 0.8342
Year 2, Female Parolees
Place Team Name Brier Score
1st IdleSpeculation 0.8771
2nd MCHawks 0.8758
3rd PASDA 0.8755
4th Oracle 0.8754
5th SAS Institute 0.8742

Year 3

Year 3, Male Parolees
Place Team Name Brier Score
1st SAS Institute 0.851
2nd IdleSpeculation 0.8504
3rd TrueFit 0.8502
4th EarlyStopping 0.8501
5th KMG_BQR 0.8481
Year 3, Female Parolees
Place Team Name Brier Score
1st IdleSpeculation 0.8853
2nd PASDA 0.8835
3rd SAS Institute 0.88297
4th EarlyStopping 0.882663
5th CategOracles 0.8821
Date Created: July 12, 2021