Optimizing Supervision and Service Strategies to Reduce Reoffending: Accounting for Risks, Strengths, and Developmental Differences

The purpose of this project is to partner with three juvenile justice agencies in Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin to 1) improve their capacity to accurately measure reoffending and to use data to optimize supervision practices, 2) identify youth characteristics (risk and protective factors) that most strongly predict reoffending, and 3) determine whether strengths-based services in addition risk-reduction services lead to the lower rates of reoffending. This study will gather both retrospective (N > 30,000) and prospective (N > 3,500) samples of youth who receive a risk-needs assessment at probation intake and follow them for 1.5 to 3-years to measure re-offending. The study will obtain high quality administrative data ([re]assessments of risk- needs,supervision, and reoffending), and add self-report measures of protective factors and enhanced service utilization data systems. It will use multiple measures of reoffending (e.g., new petitions and new convictions for serious reoffending) over two time-points (during and after supervision). The analytic plan institutes survival analyses that account for time at-risk to assess how much rates of reoffending differ across specific risk and protective factor domains, while controlling for the effects of supervision and services, and whether strengths-based services add value to risk-reduction services to affect reoffending measures, while controlling for selection effects using a propensity-weighting approach. The study will also assess whether age moderates predictive domains and service responsivity. This study will yield a model – that will be widely disseminated via a policy brief – for better underdoing and using assessment, service, supervision, and re-offense data to shape policy and practice decisions.
Note: This project contains a research and/or development component, as defined in applicable law, and complies with Part 200 Uniform Requirements - 2 CFR 200.210(a)(14). CA/NCF