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Chicago Police Predictive Policing Demonstration and Evaluation Project: Phase 2

Award Information

Award #
Funding Category
Congressional District
Funding First Awarded
Total funding (to date)

Description of original award (Fiscal Year 2011, $1,500,000)

Chicago Police Department (CPD)will implement and deploy a flexible and extensible prediction system, leveraging off of their research partner Illinois Institute of Technology (IIT's) work in computer-aided diagnostic systems (medical field) that will produce recommended deployment targets based on prior data. This system will be reconfigurable to make predictions about multiple crime types or prediction targets. CPD will also refine and evaluate a software tool developed in Phase 1 that quantifies and maps gang activity, and detects emerging areas of gang conflict. CPD already has in place a solid intervention model upon which this project will build, in which targeted deployments are planned daily, and bi-directional communications are available with all units; therefore, CPD already has the core infrastructure and procedures in place to allow predictive outputs to be readily operationalized. This phase will culminate in an evaluation study in which the proposed system will be evaluated in terms of prediction, process, and the impact on crime (using randomized, retrospective, and quasi-experimental studies of treatment effect). CPD prediction software will have an open design, allowing other departments and agencies to benefit from this intensive research effort.

This award supplements funding for 2011-IJ-CX-K014. This competitive award was made in response to a proposal submitted by the Chicago Police Department (CPD) to an NIJ FY2009 solicitation "Predictive Policing Demonstration and Evaluation Program." This project was only partially funded with the initial award. The Chicago Police Department is implementing a pilot that in part will evaluate the ability of modified pattern-matching software currently used for medical diagnostic purposes to predict crime patterns. It will also evaluate the efficacy of a software tool that quantifies and maps gang activity to predict emerging areas of gang conflict. The pilot will be evaluated in terms of accuracy of prediction, process, and impact, using randomized, retrospective, and quasi-experimental studies. CPDs research partner is the Illinois Institute of Technology (IIT's). This is part of a larger NIJ effort to evaluate the concept of predictive policing. nca/ncf

This award was made competitively under the Fiscal Year 2009 National Institute of Justice (NIJ) Predictive Policing Demonstration and Evaluation Program solicitation. This Chicago Police Department (CPD) predictive policing pilot is evaluating the concept of predictive policing with regard to both individuals and places. With respect to individuals, the pilot seeks to develop a means to predict those subjects among individuals with a history of substantial criminal activity most likely to be parties to future violence as either an offender or a victim. The approach uses an individual's social network to create a predictive model. The CPD pilot also seeks to develop a citywide crime forecasting capability. This effort involves the development of algorithms to identify and forecast crime patterns and flag anomalies that may be leading indicators. These algorithms are expected to capture important crime information accurately, while adaptively tailoring their predictions to local conditions. The pilot involves many technical innovations offering potential advantages over existing methods, including exploring the development of a mesh-modeling framework for crime prediction. The CPD proposed a three year project period with a total funding requirement of $3,000,000. NIJ determined to fund this award incrementally providing $1,500,000 in FY2011, and $1,000,000 in FY2012. The $500,000 in supplemental funding proposed in this memorandum will complete funding for this award. This completes funding for this effort. nca/ncf

Date Created: September 11, 2011