Foreclosures and Crime: A Space-Time Analysis

This project will examine the impact of foreclosures and crime in Miami, Florida, and Washington, D.C., over a ten-year period. The proposed research considers the effects of the two phenomena on each other through a dynamic systems approach. This approach involves simultaneously modeling the temporal and spatial effects of foreclosures on neighborhood crime levels and of crime on neighborhood foreclosure rates. A dynamic model will allow the researchers to predict the effects of both phenomena on each other under short-, medium-, and long-term scenarios. In addition, four central questions guide their proposed research: 1) What is the effect of foreclosures on the levels of crime in a neighborhood and how does that relationship change over time? Do the two phenomena have a recursive relationship? 2) Do foreclosures in one area have a "spillover" effect, increasing crime in a neighboring area at an immediate or later time period? 3) How do the effects of foreclosures on crime differ in the short-, medium-, and long-term? 4) What are the perceptions of key informants and residents on foreclosures and crime in their neighborhoods, on the impact of foreclosures on the crime rate, and on the best approaches to addressing the spillover effects of the foreclosure crisis? The study will also contribute to the understanding of displacement effects away from neighborhoods, an issue that is fast becoming a concern for policymakers. ca/ncf