Bargaining in the Shadow of Trial? Exploring the Reach of Evidence Outside the Jury Box

This research seeks to operationalize and estimate the impact of strength of evidence in plea bargaining. The leverage value of a plea is the difference between a trial sentence and a pled sentence, and the expected value of trial is the sentence 'multiplied' by the probability of conviction. Phase I entails an online survey of State/local judges, prosecutors and defense attorneys (each n=1,000), recruited with assistance of professional judicial, defense, and prosecutor associations. Subjects are randomly assigned to hypothetical robbery case scenarios varying on eyewitness/confession/DNA/unknown evidence; responses address the relative importance in charging, plea/trial sentences, probability of conviction, and willingness to plea. Phase II entails data extraction from n=523 adult felony casefiles closed between 2004 and 2005 (sampling dismissed and pled, taking all trial) in 3 Upstate NY district attorney offices to examine the relative importance in probability of conviction and trial, also controlling for legal (weapons) and nonlegal (race) factors.

ca/ncf