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Determining an Optimal Police Search Area for a Serial Criminal

Award Information

Award #
2005-IJ-CX-K036
Location
Awardee County
Baltimore
Congressional District
Status
Closed
Funding First Awarded
2005
Total funding (to date)
$49,961

Description of original award (Fiscal Year 2005, $24,995)

The Applied Mathematics Laboratory of Towson University will conduct a research project for the National Institute of Justice. The purpose of this research is to develop a method that can look at a series of crimes committed by the same offender, and then estimate the likely location of the offender's 'base of operation.' The main idea is to create new techniques manifested in new software, which primarily uses center of minimum distance including impedance effects on center of minimum distance and the expression of this center in an area.

nca/ncf

The Applied Mathematics Laboratory of Towson University will conduct a research project for the National Institute of Justice. During the previous award period (2005-IJ-CX-K036), a general method for estimating the anchor point of a serial criminal was developed. The method assumes that there is a probability density function (pdf) that describes the probability of a serial criminal with a particular anchor point committing a crime at a particular location. The goal for 2006-2007 is to examine other distance decay models that research by criminologists suggests might be more appropriate for use in the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) approach. The second goal is to examine empirical data, including data provided by the Baltimore County Police Department, to determine the "proper" form for the pdf in the model; this includes finding the "correct" distance decay function which may depend on the characteristics of the crime series, including crime type.

nca/ncf

Date Created: September 15, 2005