Determining an Optimal Police Search Area for a Serial Criminal

The Applied Mathematics Laboratory of Towson University will conduct a research project for the National Institute of Justice. During the previous award period (2005-IJ-CX-K036), a general method for estimating the anchor point of a serial criminal was developed. The method assumes that there is a probability density function (pdf) that describes the probability of a serial criminal with a particular anchor point committing a crime at a particular location. The goal for 2006-2007 is to examine other distance decay models that research by criminologists suggests might be more appropriate for use in the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) approach. The second goal is to examine empirical data, including data provided by the Baltimore County Police Department, to determine the "proper" form for the pdf in the model; this includes finding the "correct" distance decay function which may depend on the characteristics of the crime series, including crime type.

nca/ncf