Assessing Error in PMI Prediction Using a Forensic Entomological Computer Model

PROJECT SUMMARY FOR 2000 RB-CX 0002

This project extends previous research and development of the "Maggot Model", originally conducted by this researcher as a doctoral candidate at another university. While the Maggot Model as it was originally developed superceded other programs in effectively estimating post mortem intervals (PMI) to aid death investigations, this research seeks to enhance power of the estimate by evaluating two potential sources of error. The study's goals are to (1) improve PMI estimation by better understanding how maggots develop in response to environmental conditions (2) quantify the confidence limits of the computer-based estimate by using forensic evidence and other data from cases where the PMI is known and (3) quantify the limits of sensitivity of the program for calculating PMI in the presence of collection bias at the crime scene.