There is a strong correspondence between year-to-year deviations in UCR crime rates and NCS victimization rates for both crime types. The primary difference between the two data series lies in their contrasting trends, although there is some evidence that these have been converging in recent years. "Ex post" forecasts reveal that the UCR/NCS relationships estimated from the 1973-85 data continued through 1986 and 1987. While the UCR rates in 1986 were somewhat influenced by unusual increases in the proportion of crimes reported to the police that year, changes in crime reporting for the period as a whole have had little effect on UCR burglary and robbery rates. The report concludes that, within the two serious crime types examined in this study, there is strong consistency between the alternative data sources on variations in crime rates over time. 11 notes, 26 references, 4 tables, and 3 figures. (Author abstract modified)
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