A Statistical Method To Construct Confidence Sets on Carrion Insect Age From Development Stage

• NCJ Number: 252291
• Journal: Journal of Agricultural Biological and Environmental Statistics Volume: 22 Issue: 2 Dated: June 2017 Pages: 161-171
• Author(s): Lynn R. LaMotte; Amanda L. Roe; Jeffrey D. Wells; Leon G. Higley
• Date Published: June 2017
• Length: 11 pages
• Grant Number(s): 2013-DN-BX-K042; 2010-DN-BX-K231
• Agencies: NIJ-Sponsored
• Publication Type: Research (Applied/Empirical); Report (Study/Research); Report (Grant Sponsored); Program/Project Description
• Award: Statistical Methods for Combining Multivariate and Categorical Data in Postmortem Interval Estimation; Establishing Blow Fly Development and Sampling Procedures to Estimate Postmortem Intervals

Annotation

Since no method has previously been proposed for constructing a confidence set on carrion insect age based on development stage modeled as a categorical response, the project described in this article illustrates the application of exact p values, which was first developed for succession data, to construct a confidence set on a carrion insect's age based only on its development stage.

Abstract

The project used published development data for Lucilia sericata, with individuals reared at different temperatures pooled into sets of similar age as indexed in accumulated degree hours. Rates of coverage of true ages, assessed using each insect as a singleton holdout sample, were greater than the nominal 95-percent level. (Publisher abstract modified)