Prediction and Typology Development: Introduction and Progress Report

• NCJ Number: 109005
• Author(s): L W Shannon
• Date Published: 1985
• Length: 108 pages
• Grant Number(s): 85-IJ-CX-0019
• Agencies: NIJ-Sponsored
• Publication Type: Research (Applied/Empirical)

Annotation

A research project used data on 50 offenders and analyses of the literature and the author's prior research to develop a classification system that would identify different types and patterns of delinquency to aid the understanding and prediction of continuity in delinquent careers, continuation from delinquency to adult crime, and the development of serious criminal careers.

Abstract

The author's prior research in the 1950's in Madison, Wis., and in the 1960's in Racine, Wis., indicated that the links among the problems of measurement, classification, and prediction required their simultaneous consideration. The analysis used both official records and self-report data, with emphasis on official data. It focused on the individual's offenses, dispositions, and sanctions. The 51 cases chosen for the initial analysis were individuals from the 1955 cohort who had serious and/or frequent contacts with the police. Discussions of methodological issues to be resolved, preliminary results, data tables, and 63 references, as well as appended analysis of the development of career typologies based on offense level, cohort, and justice system involvement. For related document, see NCJ 109006.