The models all performed well in cross validation against the distributions used to generate the model; however, a model generated based on data that does not contain representatives from all of the ASTM E1618-14 classes did not perform well in validation with data sets that contain representatives from the missing classes. A quadratic discriminant model based on a balanced data set (ignitable liquid versus substrate pyrolysis), with a uniform distribution of the ASTM E1618-14 classes, performed well (receiver operating characteristic area under the curve of 0.836) when tested against laboratory-developed, casework-relevant samples of known ground truth. (publisher abstract modified)
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