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LONG-TERM PREDICTIVE UTILITY OF THE BASE EXPECTANCY SCORE

NCJ Number
146540
Journal
Howard Journal of Criminal Justice Volume: 32 Issue: 4 Dated: (November 1993) Pages: 276-290
Author(s)
S D Gottfredson; D M Gottfredson
Date Published
1993
Length
15 pages
Annotation
After a historical overview of the development and use of the Base Expectancy Score (BE), this article examines its predictive validity over more than 25 years and over a variety of outcome criteria of recent interest to the "criminal career" research paradigm.
Abstract
The BE scale considered in this study was developed from a study of case files on 873 men selected in a manner designed to approximate random selection from all men released from prison to California parole supervision in 1956. It was constructed to predict parole outcomes. The current study involved a sample of 6,000 men incarcerated in California prisons in the early 1960's. The group was chosen to reflect a random sample of all men in California's prisons at that time. The findings provide further evidence of the validity of the BE scale. Besides a stable predictive validity, it was useful with a variety of criteria different from those on which it was initially constructed. The BE scale performed as well as did a variety of models based on recently proposed criteria. 1 table, 12 notes, and 70 references

Date Published: January 1, 1993