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Estimating Human Trafficking Into the United States: Development of a Methodology Final Phase Two Report

NCJ Number
Date Published
December 2007
65 pages
This project developed methods for estimating the number of females and males trafficked over the Southwest U.S. border from 8 Central and South American countries for sexual and labor exploitation, and improved and applied these methods to estimate the number of females trafficked for sexual exploitation to the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region from 15 Eastern European countries.
The Source Zone Model was developed to estimate the number of females in the 23 countries at risk of being trafficked, and from those at risk, the number who are then possibly trafficked. The second model, the Transit Zone Model is based on descriptions of possible journeys that victims might take from their country of origin to the United States. This model provides estimates at each point in the journey. It also estimates the number of victims from the eight Central and South American countries who are ultimately trafficked into the United States. The methods were developed to be flexible and reusable, so they could be adapted to include victims from other countries of origin and additional entry points into the United States, as well as for destination countries other than the United States. The methods developed provide a good starting point for helping countries understand their vulnerability as a source, transit, or destination point. The use of open source data as inputs makes the methods highly accessible. Recommendations are offered for capitalizing on the results of this study. The report recommends wide dissemination of the methods to interested parties in this field of research, so it may be examined, critiqued, and improved for future use. It also recommends application of the models to a broader group of source, transit, and destination countries, so as to improve the models and highlight their strengths and weaknesses. 20 exhibits, 46 references, and appended statistical methods, composite indexes for all countries, trafficking multipliers for each country, and minimum standards for the elimination of trafficking in persons under the Trafficking Victims Protection Act

Date Published: December 1, 2007