Deterrence, Firearm Arrests, and Subsequent Shootings: A Micro-Level Spatio-Temporal Analysis

• NCJ Number: 240217
• Journal: Justice Quarterly Volume: 29 Issue: 4 Dated: August 2012 Pages: 524-545
• Author(s): Brian R. Wyant; Ralph B. Taylor; Jerry H. Ratcliffe; Jennifer Wood
• Date Published: August 2012
• Length: 22 pages
• Grant Number(s): 2009-IJ-CX-0026
• Agencies: NIJ-Sponsored
• Publication Type: Report (Study/Research)
• Award: Forecasting Municipality Crime Counts within a Metropolitan Area

Annotation

This study asked the question do police firearm arrests reduce later shootings in nearby locations and in the days immediately following the arrest.

Abstract

Do police firearm arrests reduce later shootings in nearby locations and in the days immediately following the arrest? This question is examined at a more detailed level than in previous work in order to better describe the spatio-temporal dynamics linking these two event types. All firearm arrests (n=5,687) and shootings (n=5,870) in Philadelphia from 2004 to 2007 were analyzed using a modified close-pair method. Following a firearm arrest shootings declined significantly, 28-47 percent up to a couple of blocks away. These significant declines, however, lasted for just a few days. Overall, results suggest police firearm suppression effects occur, may extend up to two blocks away from a firearm arrest, but also are short-lived. Potential implications for deterrence are discussed. Abstract published by arrangement with Taylor and Francis.