Assessing Risk of Sexually Abusive Behavior Among Youth in a Child Welfare Sample

• NCJ Number: 241333
• Journal: Behavioral Sciences & the Law Volume: 28 Issue: 1 Dated: 2010 Pages: 24-45
• Author(s): Robert A. Prentky, Ph.D.; Nien-Chen Li, M.P.A., M.A.; Sue Righthand, Ph.D.; Ann Schuler, M.S.C.J/M.H.C.; Deborah Cavanaugh, M.A.; Austin F. Lee, Ph.D.
• Date Published: 2010
• Length: 22 pages
• Grant Number(s): 2002-IJ-CX-0029
• Agencies: NIJ-Sponsored
• Publication Type: Test/Measurement; Program/Project Evaluation
• Award: Risk Management of Sexually-Reactive Children and Adolescent

Annotation

This study examined the predictive validity of the J-SOAP-II using samples of adolescent and pre-adolescent boys who were wards of the Massachusetts Department of Social Services.

Abstract

Statutory management of juvenile sexual offenders demands reliable, valid methods for assessing the risk posed by these youth. This study examined the predictive validity of the J-SOAP-II using samples of adolescent and pre-adolescent boys who were wards of the Massachusetts Department of Social Services. The base rate for sexual recidivism among the adolescents (14-16 percent) is generally in line with what has been reported. The equivalent base rate for the pre-adolescents (25-28 percent), however, was notably higher. Although the J-SOAP-II was developed for adolescents, the scale also worked with the pre-adolescents in predicting sexual recidivism over 7 years, with AUC values of 0.77, 0.74, 0.77, and 0.80 for Scales 1, 3, 4, and Total among the pre-adolescents and AUC values of 0.80, 0.82, and 0.83 for Scales 1, 4, and Total among the adolescents. Discussion focuses on extant J-SOAP research and sample dependent variability, as well as social policy implications. (Published Abstract)