Risk and Protective Trajectories, Community Context, and Juvenile Recidivism

The purpose of the study is to examine factors that predict juvenile offending and how the likelihood of reoffending varies by changes in risk and protective factors, as well as geographic location in Florida. The project design will analyze data about a prospective cohort of all youth who completed a community- based disposition for an adjudicated offense during the recent 3- year period in the state of Florida (approximately 26,000 youth), which is the entire population of community-based juvenile offenders in the state of Florida. Based on residential location while under supervision, the individual data will be combined with aggregate data from the American Community Survey. The four primary goals are to: 1) Empirically identify the distinct trajectories in dynamic risk and protective factors among youth under probation supervision, 2) Examine trajectories in risk across multiple domains in order to assess whether changes in one risk factor are associated with changes in others, 3) Assess the relationship between community contextual measures/individual factors and trajectory group membership, and 4) Assess whether different patterns in risk/need over time (trajectory group membership) is associated with new offending during and post- completion of probation supervision. Anticipated deliverables include a final report, executive summary, presentation to the Florida Department of Juvenile Justice, complete with policy recommendations and multiple peer-reviewed journal articles. Note: This project contains a research and/or development component, as defined in applicable law, and complies with Part 200 Uniform Requirements - 2 CFR 200.210(a)(14). CA/NCF