Accounting for Covariates in Forensic Error Rate Assessment and Evidence Interpretation

Some deficiencies in the nation's forensic science system are noted in the Congressionally mandated 2009 National Academy of Science (NAS) report entitled "Strengthening Forensic Science in the United States: A Path Forward" and the 2016 President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) report entitled "Forensic Science in Criminal Courts: Ensuring Scientific Validity of Feature-Comparison Methods." Both reports call for research into the accuracy and reliability of forensic methodology. This proposal is requesting support for the collaborative research of a group of statisticians and computer scientists at George Mason University, South Dakota State University, Iowa State University and the National Institute of Standards and Technology to address some of the concerns detailed in these reports. The overall goal of this project is to strengthen error rate assessment and evidence interpretation by utilizing novel and rigorous statistical methodology. The outcomes of the project will enhance understanding of accuracy and its inherent variability in forensic science disciplines, and provide guidance to rigorous interpretation of these measures. Note: This project contains a research and/or development component, as defined in applicable law, and complies with Part 200 Uniform Requirements - 2 CFR 200.210(a)(14). CA/NCF