Predicting Crime Through Incarceration: Assessing The Impact Of Rates Of Prison Cycling On Rates Of Crime In Communities

The purpose of this research is to study the effects of prison cycling on local communities. It is hypothesized that the flow into and out of prison has different impacts on crime than stays in prison. The effect of the stock population of prisoners from a local community on surpressing crime may be countered by the tendency of prison cycling to undermine public safety. Crime and incarceration data will be compiled for a twenty year time series and mapped to the census block level for Newwark, Trenton, and Camden, as well as rural areas of New Jersey. The impact of prison cycling on changes in crime will be assessed controlling for a range of other factors. The impact of related aspects of prison cycling will be evaluated for local areas.
nca/ncf