PREDICTING CRIME THROUGH INCARCERATION: THE IMPACT OF RATES OF PRISON CYCLING ON RATES OF CRIME IN COMMUNITIES

The purpose of this research is to examine the relationship and impact of incarceration and crime on local communities. Crime and incarceration data will be collected at the census block level for three cities (Newark, Trenton, Camden), and rural areas of New Jersey State over a twenty year period. Using panel and time series analysis, the impact of rates of prison cycling, both removal and reentry on changes in crime rates in those local areas will be examined controlling for a range of demographic and criminal justice factors. Models will be developed and evaluated to assess the impact of various related aspects of prison cycling (type of crime, length of sentence, etc) on crime rates on those local areas.

ca/ncf