An Estimable Dynamic Model of Criminal Behavior

This research concerns the formulation and estimation of a comprehensive forward-looking model of criminal behavior. The model will be estimated using a non-experimental sample and it will then be used to evaluate interventions in criminal records policy and to improve our understanding about the economic stigma associated with a criminal record. The model will also be able to shed light on the relationship between education and crime and test competing explanations advanced on the literature regarding this connection. The model will be estimated using longitudinal microdata from the National Survey of Youth (NYS). From a methodological standpoint, this contribution will enhance the toolkit of agencies involved in the study of criminal behavior by providing a complement to more classical experimental approaches to policy evaluation. The model formulated under this research proposal could then be modified and enhanced to address other pressing issues in crime and criminal justice policy by exploiting the strengths of other longitudinal designs and administrative data sources.
CA/NCF