Exhibit 2. Percentage of Hypothetical Cases Rejected by Prosecutors and Evidence Strength
Description
From the article "NIJ’s Courts Research: Examining Alternatives to Incarceration for Veterans and Other Policy Innovation," November 1, 2021.
This exhibit shows the percentage of hypothetical cases rejected at screening, by offense seriousness and the prosecutor’s rating of strength of evidence. It shows that the objective strength of evidence was the determining factor in most screening decisions.
| Evidence Strength | Misdemeanor | Low level felony | High level felony |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Lowest | 0.67 | 0.89 | 1 |
| 2 Mid-Low | 0.26 | 0.63 | 0.11 |
| 3 Average | 0.11 | 0.01 | 0.08 |
| 4 Mid-High | 0.05 | 0 | 0.02 |
| 5 Highest | 0.14 | 0 | 0 |
Source: Bruce Frederick and Don Stemen, “The Anatomy of Discretion: An Analysis of Prosecutorial Decision-Making – Technical Report,” Final report to the National Institute of Justice, award number 2009-IJ-CX-0040, December 2012, NCJ 240334, https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/grants/240334.pdf.