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NETWORK FLOW MODEL FOR FORECASTING AND EVALUATING CRIMINAL DISPLACEMENT

NCJ Number
57762
Journal
EVALUATION QUARTERLY Volume: 3 Issue: 2 Dated: (MAY 1979) Pages: 219-235
Author(s)
S J DEUTSCH; J J JARVIS; R G PARKER
Date Published
1979
Length
17 pages
Annotation
A TECHNICAL ACCOUNT IS GIVEN OF THE CONSTRUCTION AND APPLICATIONS OF A MODEL THAT DESCRIBES PATTERNS OF CRIME DISPLACEMENT (THE OCCURRENCE OF CRIMES IN ZONES OTHER THAN THE ZONES IN WHICH THE PERPETRATORS RESIDE).
Abstract
THE MODEL CAN BE USED TO PREDICT DISPLACEMENT PATTERNS IN METROPOLITAN AREAS AND TO EVALUATE THE DISPLACEMENT EFFECTS OF CRIME CONTROL INTERVENTIONS IMPLEMENTED IN SELECTED ZONES (E.G., POLICE PRECINCTS). THE MODEL CORRELATES DATA ON THE MOVEMENTS OF CRIMINALS ACROSS ZONE BOUNDARIES WITH DATA ON THE SOCIOECONOMIC, DEMOGRAPHIC, AND RESOURCE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE ZONES IN QUESTION. CRIMINAL MOVEMENT DATA ARE DRAWN FROM POLICE RECORDS OF THE LOCATIONS OF CRIMES AND ARRESTEES' RESIDENCES. SOCIOECONOMIC DATA INCLUDE THE PER CAPITA INCOME OF ZONES AND WHETHER THE ZONES ARE RESIDENTIAL OR COMMERCIAL. THE DISTANCE BETWEEN ZONES AND THE PRESENCE OF SUCH 'TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY' AS LIQUOR STORES AND QUICK-STOP GROCERY STORES ARE EXAMPLES OF DEMOGRAPHIC DATA. RESOURCE DATA INCLUDE POLICE-CONTROLLABLE FACTORS, SUCH AS MANPOWER ALLOCATION BY FUNCTION (PATROL, DETECTIVE, UNDERCOVER, ETC.). THE CONSTRUCTION OF THE MODEL FROM HISTORICAL DATA AND ITS USE IN PREDICTING DISPLACEMENT ARE ILLUSTRATED WITH ARREST DATA FOR ATLANTA, GA., OVER A 1-YEAR PERIOD. IN THE ILLUSTRATION A SIGNIFICANT TREND TOWARD THE COMMISSION OF CRIMES IN THE INNER CITY BY SUBURBAN RESIDENTS IS PREDICTED. DIAGRAMS OF THE MODEL, MATHEMATICAL EQUATIONS, SUPPORTING DATA, AND A LIST OF REFERENCES ARE INCLUDED. (LKM)

Date Published: January 1, 1979