Accuracy of Recidivism Prediction Scales: A Technical Description of Data and Research Methods

The four recidivism prediction scales were originally designed to predict different outcomes. Offender attributes in each scale included adult criminal record, juvenile record, drug/alcohol use, age at target arrest, educational attainment, and employment history. All data sets associated with the scales contained longitudinal information on individual offending, as indicated by criminal justice interventions. Although the four recidivism prediction scales represented useful approaches to making comparisons across data sets, no scale performed very well or very consistently. Researchers found that, without considerable improvement in measurement ability, theoretical considerations about what factors affect recidivism are less important than statistical characteristics of the sample and the scale. Appendixes contain scale scoring rules and supporting analytical data. 17 references, 14 footnotes, 9 tables, and 6 figures