Predictive modeling combining short and long-term crime risk potential

This project develops and tests a technology that will depict and predict (respectively) current and future crime potential. In doing so, it will operationalize two grounded theoretical approaches to understanding localized spatial crime patterns. This combination of a long-term crime potential map surface with a short-term crime spike surface will create the opportunity for law enforcement and other criminal justice agencies to apply a theoretical understanding to the business of crime prediction. The resulting map of predicted crime will enable police departments to take a proactive approach to crime prevention, disruption and reduction, and will provide a foundation for truly predictive policing and crime prevention. This project will create a software tool that will enable police departments and other agencies across the country to use their geocoded crime data in combination with freely-available census data and create micro-spatial estimates of future criminal activity at the local block level.
ca/ncf