Extreme Risk Protection Orders in Washington State and their Impact on Firearm-Related Arrests and Convictions

The outlined dissertation research seeks to inform firearm violence prevention efforts by analyzing Extreme Risk Protection Orders (ERPOs), a firearm removal and restriction policy for individuals (also known as “respondents”) who demonstrate risk of harm to themselves and/or others, in Washington state from 2016 through 2022. The dissertation will describe the current state of Washington's ERPOs and assess their impact on firearm-related arrests and convictions. Describing and understanding the characteristics of respondents and circumstances of Washington's ERPOs is important to identify the population directly impacted by this law and provide context for outcome and evaluation studies. We also aim to evaluate if firearm restriction and removal through ERPOs is effective in reducing subsequent firearm-related arrests and convictions among ERPO respondents. Quantitative data analysis will include: 1) among ERPO respondents, assess whether the ERPO was granted vs non-granted is associated with subsequent firearm-related arrests or convictions using propensity score weighted logistic regression, and 2) among granted ERPOs, determine if respondents are more likely to have a firearm-related arrest or conviction during their ERPO period compared with their post-ERPO period when firearm purchasing and ownership rights have been re-instated, using a self-controlled risk interval design and conditional Poisson regression. Key partners in this project include the Washington Administrative Office of Courts and Washington State Patrol. This dissertation will yield several academic manuscripts and support engagement with public health and criminal justice system scholars nationally at professional conferences and meetings. Reports of study findings will be shared with policymakers and interested community groups regionally and nationally. CA/NCF

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